\section{Tables for Austrian Election Study}\label{app:tableA}

% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:28:38 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrrrr}
  \hline
 & Obs. & mean & sd & min & max \\ 
  \hline
Rating ÖVP & 1913 & 6.92 & 3.15 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPÖ & 1910 & 6.99 & 2.93 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating Grüne & 1907 & 6.35 & 3.11 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating FPÖ & 1907 & 3.68 & 3.03 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating ÖVP-FPÖ & 1883 & 4.07 & 3.05 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating SPÖ-Grüne & 1884 & 5.91 & 3.47 & 1 & 11 \\ 
  Rating ÖVP-Grüne & 1885 & 5.94 & 3.09 & 1 & 11 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Descriptive statistics Austrain Election Study} 
\label{tab:oest.rat}
\end{table}






\begin{table}[h]
\begin{tabular}{l c c c c}

\toprule
      &    \multicolumn{4}{c}{Vignettes} \\
      &   Greens-ÖVP & Greens-SPÖ & FPÖ-ÖVP & FPÖ-SPÖ \\
\midrule

Stable decision           & $63$ & $66$ & $64$ & $62$ \\
...  without intention    & $11$   & $12$   & $13$   & $13$   \\
...  vote for party       & $52$   & $54$   & $51$   & $49$   \\
\\
Changing decision         & $36$ & $34$ & $36$ & $38$ \\
...  other party          & $10$   & $9$   & $9$   & $11$   \\
...  mobilization         & $16$   & $16$   & $15$   & $14$   \\
...  demobilization       & $10$   & $9$   & $12$   & $13$   \\

\bottomrule

\end{tabular}
\caption{Austrian Election Study: Changes in vote intention from standard to vignette decision. Values report column percentage points.}
\label{tab:changes.oest}
\end{table}

% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:28:38 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & ÖVP & Greens & other \\ 
  \hline
ÖVP & 23.15 & 1.36 & 3.21 \\ 
  Greens & 0.29 & 11.87 & 3.50 \\ 
  other & 6.23 & 4.67 & 45.72 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition Table for ÖVP Greens  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:28:38 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & ÖVP & FPÖ & other \\ 
  \hline
ÖVP & 19.94 & 0.49 & 6.84 \\ 
  FPÖ & 0.88 & 3.32 & 2.05 \\ 
  other & 5.87 & 3.23 & 57.38 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition Table for ÖVP FPÖ  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:28:38 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & SPÖ & Greens & other \\ 
  \hline
SPÖ & 23.86 & 1.36 & 2.72 \\ 
  Greens & 0.78 & 13.39 & 1.45 \\ 
  other & 5.82 & 3.69 & 46.94 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition Table for SPÖ Greens  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}
% latex table generated in R 3.3.0 by xtable 1.8-2 package
% Wed Jul 13 12:28:38 2016
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\begin{tabular}{rrrr}
  \hline
 & SPÖ & FPÖ & other \\ 
  \hline
SPÖ & 17.13 & 0.68 & 10.26 \\ 
  FPÖ & 0.68 & 3.97 & 1.74 \\ 
  other & 5.91 & 1.84 & 57.79 \\ 
   \hline
\end{tabular}
\caption{Transition Table for SPÖ FPÖ  vignette. Rows refer to standard decision, columns to vignette decsion. Values are in percentage points.} 
\end{table}





\begin{table}[h!]
 \centering

\begin{tabular}{lcccc}
\toprule
                 & ÖVP-Greens          & SPÖ-Greens          & ÖVP-FPÖ             & SPÖ-FPÖ           \\
\midrule
                                                                                                         \\
Mixing 1 ($\gamma_1$)            & 0.87      & 0.82      & 0.92      & 0.96      \\
                 & [0.80, 0.96]   & [0.75, 0.88]   & [0.82, 0.99]  & [0.88, 1.00])   \\
Mixing 2 ($\gamma_2$)           & 0.44      & 0.43      & 0.64      & 0.7      \\
                 & [0.31, 0.57]   & [0.24, 0.61]   & [0.51, 0.77]   & [0.59, 0.84]   \\
                                                                                                         \\
First Difference ($\gamma_1 - \gamma_2$ )& 0.43      & 0.38      & 0.28      & 0.25      \\
                 & [0.28, 0.59]  & [0.19, 0.59]  & [0.11, 0.43]  & [0.10, 0.38]  \\
                 \\
 
Vote first decision ($\alpha$) & 2.57     & 2.81     & 1.74     & 1.85     \\
                 & [2.17, 2.97]  & [2.42, 3.19]  & [1.32, 2.18]  & [1.43, 2.25] \\  

Rating 1  ($\lambda_2$)        & 0.74     & 0.92     & 0.59     & 0.58     \\
                 & [0.60, 0.90] & [0.78, 1.07] & [0.46, 0.70] & [0.48, 0.69] \\
Rating 2 ($\lambda_2$)         & 0.46     & 0.33     & 0.43     & 0.39     \\
                 & [0.37, 0.57] & [0.25, 0.42] & [0.34, 0.53] & [0.29, 0.49] \\
PID 1  ($\delta_{11}$)           & 2.6     & 2.05     & 2.79     & 2.34     \\
                 & [2.24, 2.99] & [1.71, 2.41] & [2.38, 3.21] & [1.96, 2.70] \\
PID 2   ($\delta_{12}$)          & 0.47     & 0.61     & 0.87     & 0.68     \\
                 & [0.06, 0.87] & [0.21, 1.02] & [0.43, 1.30] & [0.27, 1.07] \\     
                 
Distance Left-Right 1  ($\delta_{21}$)           & 0.04     & 0.02     & 0.02     & 0.01     \\
                 & [0.02, 0.06] & [0.01, 0.04] & [0.01, 0.04] & [0.00, 0.02] \\
Distance Left-Right 2   ($\delta_{22}$)          & 0.02     & 0.02     & 0.02     & 0.01     \\
                 & [0.00, 0.03] & [0.01, 0.03] & [0.00, 0.03] & [-0.00, 0.02] \\       
     
\midrule
N & 1164 & 1031 & 1023 & 1033                                                 \\    
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
 \caption{Posteriori means and 95 \% Credible Intervals for Models in Austrian Election Study}
 \label{tab:coef.oest2}
\end{table}




\begin{sidewaystable}[h!]
 \centering
{\tiny
\begin{tabular}{lcccccccc}
\toprule
            & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ÖVP-Green} & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{SPÖ-Green} & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{ÖVP-FPÖ} & \multicolumn{2}{|c|}{SPÖ - FPÖ}                                                                             \\
\midrule
\\ 

            & ÖVP                             & Green                             & SPÖ                           & Green               & ÖVÜ                 & FPÖ                 & SPÖ                 & FPÖ                 \\
            
            \\ 
 Constant 1 ($\beta_{1j}$)  & \ensuremath{-6.72}   & \ensuremath{-5.06}    & \ensuremath{-6.8}   & \ensuremath{-3.01}   & \ensuremath{-5.87}   & \ensuremath{-5.09}    & \ensuremath{-4.83}  & \ensuremath{-3.98}   \\
             & [-8.51, -5.24]   & [-6.66, -3.81]    & [-8.67, -4.93]   & [-4.19, -1.74]   & [-7.41, -4.38]   & [-6.45, -3.95]    & [-6.26, -3.48]  & [-5.21, -2.81]   \\
              Constant 2  ($\beta_{2j}$)  & \ensuremath{-7.68}   & \ensuremath{-6.29}    & \ensuremath{-7.79}   & \ensuremath{-2.86}   & \ensuremath{-7.05}   & \ensuremath{-6.41}    & \ensuremath{-6.03}  & \ensuremath{-3.35}   \\
             & [-9.54, -5.98]   & [-7.95, -5.08]    & [-9.84, -6.20]  & [-4.40, -1.41]   & [-9.57, -4.91]   & [-8.29, -4.51] )   & [-8.16, -4.06]  )& [-4.88, -1.85]   \\

\\
            
            
Gender 1    & \ensuremath{-0.46}                & 0.18                & \ensuremath{-0.39}              & 0.14    & \ensuremath{-0.55}    & \ensuremath{-0.13}    & \ensuremath{-0.24}    & 0.11    \\
            & [-0.90, -0.04]              & [-0.25, 0.59]             & [-0.85, 0.07]           & [-0.32, 0.59]  & [-0.99, -0.10])  & [-0.51, 0.26]  & [-0.65, 0.18]  & [-0.28, 0.49]  \\
Gender 2    & 0.13                & 0.42                & \ensuremath{-0.1}              & 0.12    & \ensuremath{-0.05}    & 0.93    & 0.02    & \ensuremath{-0.38}    \\
            & [-0.38, 0.65]              & [-0.09, 0.90]             & [-0.65, 0.42]           & [-0.41, 0.65]  & [-0.80, 0.69]  & [0.24, 1.56]  & [-0.68, 0.75]  & [-1.01, 0.25]  \\
Education 1 & 0.04                & \ensuremath{-0.06}                & \ensuremath{-0.12}              & \ensuremath{-0.13}    & 0.04    & 0.06    & \ensuremath{-0.19}    & \ensuremath{-0.19}    \\
            & [-0.08, 0.16]              & [-0.18, 0.05]              & [-0.24, 0.01]            & [-0.25, 0.00]  & [-0.08, 0.16]  & [-0.04, 0.17]  & [-0.31, -0.08]  & [-0.31, -0.08]  \\
Education 2 & 0.06                & 0.09                & 0              & 0    & 0.03    & 0.04    & \ensuremath{-0.09}    & \ensuremath{-0.03}    \\
            & [-0.07, 0.21]              & [-0.05, 0.23]              & [-0.14, 0.14]            & [-0.14, 0.14]  & [-0.16, 0.24]  & [-0.15, 0.23]  & [-0.30, 0.11]  & [-0.20, 0.13]  \\
Religion 1  & \ensuremath{-0.18}                & 0.25               & \ensuremath{-0.1}              & 0.09   & \ensuremath{-0.23}    & 0.14   & \ensuremath{-0.06}    & 0.14   \\
            & [-0.70, 0.34]              & [-0.26, 0.79]             & [-0.65, 0.40]            & [-0.41, 0.61] & [-0.75, 0.30])  & [-0.35, 0.65]) & [-0.50, 0.37]  & [-0.29, 0.59] \\
Religion 2  & \ensuremath{-0.35}               & 0.47               & \ensuremath{-0.58}             & \ensuremath{-0.04}   & \ensuremath{-0.73}   & 0.29   & \ensuremath{-0.7}   & 0.25   \\
            & [-0.88, 0.21]            & [-0.07, 1.01]            & [-1.15, -0.03]           & [-0.63, 0.55] & [-1.58, 0.15]) & [-0.50, 1.08] & [-1.52, 0.13]) & [-0.44, 0.98] \\
Union 1     & \ensuremath{-0.1}               & \ensuremath{-0.04}               & 0.44             & 0.52   & \ensuremath{-0.15}   & 0.05   & 0.42   & \ensuremath{-0.16}   \\
            & [-0.56, 0.36]            & [-0.47, 0.39]             & [-0.02, 0.91]           & [0.06, 0.97] & [-0.59, 0.29] & [-0.35, 0.49] & [0.02, 0.83] & [-0.55, 0.24] \\
Union 2     & \ensuremath{-0.63}               & \ensuremath{-0.72}               & \ensuremath{-0.23}             & 0.28   & \ensuremath{-0.24}   & \ensuremath{-0.57}   & \ensuremath{-0.04}   & 0.43   \\
            & [-1.19, -0.11]             & [-1.24, -0.20]             & [-0.83, 0.33]          & [-0.24, 0.79] & [-1.06, 0.55] & [-1.26, 0.12] & [-0.79, 0.75] & [-0.19, 1.07] \\
Income 1    & \ensuremath{-0.01}               & \ensuremath{-0.05}               & \ensuremath{-0.19}             & \ensuremath{-0.06}   & 0.04   & \ensuremath{-0.09}   & \ensuremath{-0.1}   & \ensuremath{-0.01}   \\
            & [-0.15, 0.13]             & [-0.19, 0.09]             & [-0.34, -0.03]          & [-0.21, 0.07] & [-0.08, 0.17] & [-0.23, 0.04] & [-0.24, 0.03] & [-0.13, 0.12] \\
Income 2    & 0.15               & 0.16               & 0.02             & \ensuremath{-0.14}   & 0.16   & 0.07   & 0.11   & \ensuremath{-0.15}   \\
            & [-0.01, 0.33]             & [0.00, 0.33]           & [-0.15, 0.19]           & [-0.31, 0.04] & [-0.11, 0.42] & [-0.12, 0.29] & [-0.11, 0.34] & [-0.37, 0.03] \\
Age 1       & \ensuremath{-0.01}               & \ensuremath{-0.1}               & \ensuremath{-0.01}             & 0.44   & \ensuremath{-0.01}   & \ensuremath{-0.15}   & \ensuremath{-0.01}   & 0.42   \\
            & [-0.02, 0.00]             & [-0.56, 0.36]            & [-0.02, 0.00]           & [-0.02, 0.91] & [-0.02, 0.01] & [-0.59, 0.29] & [-0.02, 0.01] & [0.02, 0.83] \\
Age 2       & \ensuremath{-0.01}               & 0               & \ensuremath{-0.02}             & \ensuremath{-0.01}   & 0.01   & 0.01   & 0   & \ensuremath{-0.02}   \\
            & [-0.03, 0.00]             & [-0.02, 0.01]             & [-0.03, 0.00]           & [-0.03, 0.00] & [-0.01, 0.03] & [-0.01, 0.03] & [-0.02, 0.03] & [-0.03, -0.00] \\
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              \\    
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
 \caption{Posteriori means and 95 \% Credible Intervals  of Controls for Models in Austrian Election Study}
 \label{tab:coef.oest}
 }
\end{sidewaystable}


\clearpage
